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Ratan Mani analyses the pre-poll situation ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. But where do the parties stand in terms of their pre-election validations? An exclusive for Different Truths.
Every passing day brings new claims and allegations in the mega campaign that has been unleashed prior to the official declaration of Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The publicity mode is full-on, with leaders right from the Prime Minister to the party spokespersons on television news channel debates putting forth their respective parties’ viewpoints. At least two TV channels have come up with first of their multi-level pre-poll opinion surveys. The conclusions of these surveys fit in with a general view of the people.
But where do the parties stand in terms of their pre-election validations? Do they have enough in their repertory for the people to remember and recall for the next four-five or six months? Let us take a quick look.
BJP: Top Gear
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is the best equipped in terms of resources, performance claims and promises. It has its five years’ record of governance under the leadership of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. It has the undisputed and unequivocal support of the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, besides the party organisation. Regardless of the rumours of an unsubstantiated difference of opinion between Yogi and the central leaders, everyone right from Modi to Home Minister Amit Shah and others in the hierarchy are appearing solidly behind him.
The repeated visits of Modi to UP to inaugurate projects, conferences, schemes etc have given the BJP unprecedented visibility in the media.
The repeated visits of Modi to UP to inaugurate projects, conferences, schemes etc have given the BJP unprecedented visibility in the media. The party is banking on Yogi’s performance, his tough image, his claims of having curbed gangsters and organised crime, his incorruptibility, and his widespread acceptability especially in east UP. That is why the party’s focus is so high on east UP or Purvanchal.
Indications are emerging that the party might deny the party ticket to 100 or more legislators this time. It means it will try to rid itself of the burden of unpopular faces. It has also given entry to several leaders from other parties, the latest being MLCs from the Samajwadi Party. It has been organising caste conferences to consolidate its hold among castes. Its campaign machinery has already started working.
SP: Past Glory
Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party are in a complaining mode. He is repeatedly claiming that the BJP government is inaugurating projects initiated during the previous SP regime and wrongly taking credit for the same – the Purvanchal Expressway being the latest in the list. Besides, its attack on issues pertaining to law and order, police excesses, price rise, continues relentlessly. Yatras and state-wide rallies are in the offing. Party supporters have coined the slogan Baees mein bicycle, alluding to bicycle, the election symbol of the Samajwadi Party, coming to power in 2022.
The party, however, suffers from repetition of issues and allegations.
The party, however, suffers from repetition of issues and allegations. It is also constrained by absence of popular faces during the campaign over the next few months. Its alliance with Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (PSP-L), has not materialised yet, and even if it does, it is rumoured that Shivpal may not campaign much for the party for fear that he might eclipse his nephew. It means Akhilesh will be the only face during the mega rallies, roadshows, corner meetings, press conferences, village meetings and yatras.
Congress: Erratic Show
The Congress party was thrust into the limelight by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in the wake of the Lakhimpur Kheri incident. That was too soon, too much and that’s about it. She later launched the Pratigya Yatras but has remained out of the picture for quite some time.
… statements attributed to veteran Congress leaders like Salman Khurshid, Mani Shankar Aiyyar and Rashid Alvi largely undid what Priyanka had achieved…
However, during this time statements attributed to veteran Congress leaders like Salman Khurshid, Mani Shankar Aiyyar and Rashid Alvi largely undid what Priyanka had achieved to endear the Hindu section of society in UP. It is rumoured that she was upset over this turn of events and stayed away for this reason.
Whatever she had achieved in bringing back a section of society towards the party, was a result of her solo efforts. Others including brother Rahul and other veterans have done little to consolidate her gains. Whereas she has been straightforward in her statements and comments, others have been sarcastic and snide. It is very difficult to say whether sarcasm works for Congress as much as it does for Modi and BJP. Dissidents like Ghulam Nabi Azad keep reminding the people that they think differently from the rest of the Congress – and this includes Priyanka. It is an added baggage that is difficult for Priyanka to get rid of.
In the latest turn, Priyanka has very confidently announced that her party will contest the election on its own and there will be no alliance with any party. This is a bold statement and contradicts what many political observers had been predicting: that the Congress and SP might have a direct or indirect deal on seats.
Collectively taken, the Congress campaign lacks coherence…
Collectively taken, the Congress campaign lacks coherence and does not indicate a believable roadmap for seeking victory in the election. It might be fine in terms of contesting the election to enthuse the party workers, though.
Others: Also Running
The Bahujan Samaj Party and Aam Aadmi Party are intent on fighting the election on their own without any alliances till now. These two parties have few leaders to lead the campaign and have so far failed to excite the imagination of the people of UP. Even diehard supporters of BSP and AAP believe that the parties might not get into the position of forming the government on their own but may well ruin the game plan of some big (read BJP, SP and Congress) parties.
Seat alliances may materialise but the number of seats these parties expect to win is still very small.
Others like AIMIM, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) PSP-L are bound to settle down to whatever the big parties leave uncovered. Seat alliances may materialise but the number of seats these parties expect to win is still very small.
In such a situation, unless something drastically dramatic happens to ruin or bolster the chances of any party, the campaigning is likely to pick up with more allegations and shrill slogans.
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