Mandate UP 2022: United we May Win, But Divided we Survive

The divided opposition in Uttar Pradesh are struggling to survive, in the run-up to the 2022 Assembly elections in the state. Rife with conflicts and contradictions, earlier coalitions failed in the state, opines Ratan Mani, in this exclusive political analysis, for Different Truths. 

A few months before an important Assembly election, every political party looks fervently for an issue that would act as a turning point in the run-up to the campaign. Anything like a corruption scandal, a misdemeanour by a minister or a ruling party functionary, a law-and-order crisis, a blatant misuse of government machinery or a serious case of non-governance would be more than welcome to create an environment of distrust against the ruling party. The result could just bring rich electoral dividends. 

In Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest assembly elections are to be held in the first quarter of next year. Elections to the Lok Sabha are also proposed after two years. In such a situation, after the recent incident in Lakhimpur-Kheri, all the opposition parties got a tremendous opportunity to attack the state’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government a few months before the upcoming election and make the dissatisfaction arising out of this matter an issue of the people to gain an electoral edge. 

But is this happening? Going beyond that, can it even happen? Is the opposition in Uttar Pradesh, despite being strong as separate parties, in a position to put up a strong fight against the ruling BJP? First, it is important to look at some facts. 

To begin with, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been touring the state, sometimes in a proactive mode, sometimes for damage-control, and at others in announcement mode. After the 2017 elections in his state, he had formed the BJP government with a huge majority, and despite all the allegations, complaints and constant attacks from the opposition parties, it is almost certain that he will lead the party in the 2022 elections. 

We are Different 

Due to their own stand towards the BJP government at the Centre, the three parties – Congress, SP and to some extent BSP – are on the same side, but in the Uttar Pradesh elections, all three are determined to challenge the BJP on their own. Till a few months ago, there was talk that any two of these three parties could join hands, but now it seems that it is not going to happen. 

The Congress was rejected in the state in 1989 and people have not given this party a second chance till date, but there was no consensus on who should be elected as its alternative. Instead of the Congress, the Janata Dal, BJP, SP and BSP have been getting opportunities, and till 2007 no party had completed even five years of its government. Since 2007, the tenure of BSP, SP and BJP has been completed for five years, otherwise a unique record would have been set in the state by now. 

The realisation that a party is ready to form an alliance with like-minded parties even before the election season starts to build up is believed to be an expression of weakness – that is why parties like to brag that they would fight the elections alone and on their own. 

Conflict and Contradiction 

If we leave aside the example of Janata Dal, then for the first time in the 1990s, two big parties, SP and BSP, formed the government together in 1993, but this experiment failed due to conflict and contradiction before the two. Later the BJP formed the coalition government thrice with the support of the BSP and on all three occasions this government could not complete the term. 

In the year 2017, the SP together with the Congress once again proved the failure of this experiment, and the BJP formed the government with a record majority. For the record, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it was the SP that revived the conflict-ridden 1993-style alliance with the BSP, and the BJP won by a record majority. 

It is to be noted that while some smaller parties are still clamoring for any kind of alliance, the big parties are seriously going on their own separate path. That is, the big parties are no longer interested in forming alliances and benefiting others at their cost. 

Lakhimpur Edge 

The incident in a village in Lakhimpur district gave the three parties an opportunity to corner the BJP government. But the biggest problem before every party is what to do first – attack the ruling BJP, or fight off the other two parties? In such a situation, the easiest option left before each party is to shun the other two parties by accusing them of being “in collusion with the BJP.” Sample these statements:

·         SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has said in one of his interviews that BSP-Congress should first clarify whether their fight is with BJP or SP. The SP’s state president Naresh Uttam Patel said that the Congress and the BJP were working on a “joint” strategy to cast doubt on the role of the opposition and confuse the people.

·         Congress considers itself the most prominent anti-BJP party because of its nationwide presence. Its leaders consider any mention of the other opposition parties as if they are of no consequence

·         BSP has started saying that Congress and BJP are two sides of the same coin, and SP is anti-Dalit. Mayawati’s charges are directed more against the Congress and the SP, than against the BJP 

In such a situation, the BJP couldn’t be happier – it has nothing to prove, except that all the opposition parties are anti-BJP but are not united due to their own compulsions and leadership crisis. 

After the Lakhimpur incident, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Vadra was quick to make early moves. But predictably, the SP and BSP kept away from this fight. Priyanka also prominently used Hindu religious symbols like sandal paste on forehead, temple visit in Varanasi, seeking Ganga Maiya’s blessings and reciting Durga Stuti to try to dilute the BJP’s claim to represent the interests of the Hindu community. 

Political analysts believe that Priyanka’s activism is more likely to weaken the opposition’s attack at present. Akhilesh Yadav also has the organization, ability to mobilise crowds and also his own youthful image. But, if a narrative is created that the opposition campaign is guided by Priyanka’s initiatives, other opposition parties would simply not accept it. At the same time, if the Congress is strong, it will cut into the vote of the Samajwadi Party, if the vote bank of the Congress increases, then this vote will not be cut from the BJP, but only from the anti-BJP parties. The BJP’s support base is yet to show any signs of shrinking. 

Expecting Miracle 

So now the sequence is becoming such that the Congress, which has been trying to return to power since 1989, is expecting a miracle from Priyanka Vadra. SP and BSP have formed the government many times, due to which they consider themselves capable to compete again. And if we talk about the BJP, Yogi Adityanath is sure of coming to power once again on the basis of his strong and intense Hinduist image, helped of course by a divided opposition.

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