Will the Russia-Ukraine War go the Crimean Way?

There seems to be no end to the Russian-Ukraine war that began on February 24 this year. Baljeet analyses the geopolitics of NATO powers that had to be contained. Will it go the Crimean way? Find out in this exclusive opinion piece for Different Truths.

It has now been over six months since Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with the sole purpose of restraining it from falling into the lap of western powers and restricting the advancement of NATO forces towards its east. Though in the beginning Ukraine under its president Volodymyr Zelensky was desirous of joining NATO military alliance but later changed its stand to neutrality under fear of more retaliation from Russia. Russian intentions under Putin are to keep Ukraine under its control, if not annex it. It had conquered Donbas’s eastern Ukraine region, including Luhansk and Donetsk. It had also established its control over the southern part of Mariupol and Kherson. Crimea had already been annexed in 2014. Russia, once a superpower, lost its glory and prestige in 1991 when it disintegrated and consequently lost 15 states; Ukraine was one of them. Putin intends to regain the glory which Russia had once enjoyed. But the biggest challenge is that he feels threatened and encircled by the western powers. Russian fears of insecurity are comprehensible with the steady expansion of NATO towards its east. This is one of the potent reasons for its invasion of Ukraine. Putin had expected this war to be short, and Ukraine would bend to its knees within days. But his expectations now seem to have been belied.  He perhaps misunderstood the reality on the ground. He had underestimated the warring capacity and grit of the Ukrainian forces, who were ready to defend their Nation to the last breath than submit to the mighty and brute force bent on destroying their country. Along with this, the military aid provided by the western powers lent a boost to their morale. Thus, this war has become protracted so far, and there seems no end to it soon.

Will this war end up like the Crimean war of the 19^th century, which contemporary and modern historians have criticised as the most useless war because the warring nations – Russia on one side and Turkey, England, and France combined on the other – gained nothing out of it for which they had so desperately fought that long war. One of the crucial factors of that war was the expansionist policy of Russia towards Turkey, which England and France resisted for their ends. Russian intentions were to attack and annex Turkey, which was weak and called the ‘Sick man of Europe’. Hence, in July 1853, it invaded and annexed Moldavia and Wallachia, now called Rumania, then under Turkey. The latter warned Russia to vacate these territories, but when Russia refused, Turkey then attacked it. It was how that bloody war started. After a few months, in March 1854, England and France also participated in it, favouring Turkey. Napoleon III of France wanted to raise his image and that of the prestige of France in Europe by joining that war.

Moreover, he wanted to re-establish the control of Latin monks in the Catholic Church, which was under Turkey and over which Greek monks, under the influence of Russia, had held their sway by replacing them.  England intended to restrict Russian aggression in Turkey and safeguard its interests in the Mediterranean. Thus, that war was fought mainly to maintain the integrity and independence of Turkey, which Russia threatened. After two years of bloodshed, the war ended with the conclusion of the Treaty of Paris signed on March 30, 1856, between the concerned parties. According to the treaty’s terms, Turkey’s integrity and independence were recognised by all powers. The Black Sea was declared neutral, i.e., no country could bring its warships into it, and all fortifications around it were prohibited.

This treaty, though, for the time being, saved Turkey from falling into the clutches of Russia. But in the long run, it failed to protect it. Russia violated its terms in 1870 when it brought its warships into the Black Sea. England and France could do nothing to rein in Russia. Commenting on the results of that war, English statesman Lord Salisbury rightly remarked: “England put her money on the wrong horse.”
Similarly, France failed to get the rights of protection of Roman Catholic people in Turkey, which it wanted. Turkey remained weak as before, and its disintegration became inevitable. In a nutshell, the war yielded nothing fruitful except a massive loss of men and money. Moreover, it had strained relations between different powers and unleashed an era of warfare in its wake, which resulted in the Danish War (1864), the Austro-Prussian War (1866), the Franco-Prussian War (1870) and the Russo-Turkish War (1877), thereby disturbing the peace of Europe.

Reverting to the Russian-Ukraine war, which so far has resulted in disastrous consequences killing thousands of men, women and children and displacing lakhs of them and continuing with its devastating tale of destruction, including the environment and without achieving anything else to date for which it is being fought. It may run like Crimean without any tangible gains. Russia under Putin is under tremendous international pressure, facing stringent economic sanctions, to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Its economy is shattered substantially, yet its President, arrogant and stubborn as he is, remains unmoved and threatens to cut off fuel and gas supplies to Europe, the latter being heavily dependent upon Russia for it. The inflation has peaked because of disrupted supplies of wheat and oil, of which Russia and Ukraine are the biggest producers. Besides. Like the Crimean, this war has escalated tensions between NATO members and Russia. Russia and China, once rivals are now getting closer. The world thus seems to be on the verge of division as it was on the eve of two World Wars. The scenario is horrendous and needs an urgent solution before it erupts into an uncontrollable conflagration.

Picture design by Anumita Roy, Different Truths