Is India a Geopolitical Prize for America and France?

Dr Baljeet explores the geopolitical dynamics of American and French interests in India, focusing on their strategic alliances and economic ambitions, exclusively for Different Truths.

Before the advent of globalisation and liberalisation in the nineties, in the past millennium, the Indian economy was running at a snail’s pace. It was sluggish as it was mainly based on agriculture. The rate of unemployment was high, and poverty was rampant. Thus, this trailing economy failed to attract much of the world’s attention. But when the era of globalisation and liberalisation ushered it in, its graph showed an upward trend. The economy shifted its emphasis from agriculture to industry.

To promote industrial progress, new roads, bridges, and railway lines were constructed. It made the transport of goods easy and quick. Other means of communication and modern technology have also facilitated this progress. As a result, GDP, i.e., Gross Domestic Product, began to rise. Today, it is around 6 to 7% per year. Though the unemployment rate has not declined as much as was expected. And quite a good number of people are below the poverty line. However, the number of consumers has increased substantially with the rise in per capita income.

Consequently, India has become one of the biggest markets to trade with. The United States, France, Australia, China, many countries of the European Union, Asia, and Africa are trading with India. Though Indian exports are less than imports, FDI, i.e., foreign direct investment, has increased.

Of all the countries, the United States of America and France have shown intense interest in India in recent times. Therefore, these two countries deserve special mention in this context.

Why is the United States of America keenly interested?

1. America keeps India at the top of its priority list. Because its prestige and glory have suffered as it has abruptly withdrawn from the Middle East, leaving the people of Iraq and Syria to their fate. It may be reminded here that it toppled the government of Saddam Hussein, the so-called dictator president of Iraq, in 2003 and installed its puppet government there. The president was later executed on false grounds. But then, after suffering huge losses, the Americans left the Iraqis at their mercy. Similarly, when there was a widespread rebellion against Bashar al-Asad, the president of Syria, the Americans supported the rebellious militia but later left them in the lurch. In the same way, the Americans dethroned the Taliban in Afghanistan, restored order and law there for twenty long years, and then suddenly withdrew from it, leaving the helpless Afghans to fend for themselves. These unwarranted American actions dealt a severe blow and lowered the prestige of the so-called superpower. It had to eat humble pie everywhere. It is against this background that the superpower is anxious to embrace India and make its presence felt on the Indian continent. And in this way, to regain its lost glory.

2. In the recent past, the United States superpower status has been challenged by the second-largest economy in the world, i.e., China. It has become the most powerful country in Asia and is now in a mood to downgrade the superpower from its position. China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea. It has built many artificial islands in this sea. It cares least about international sea laws. By so doing, it intends to control the sea trade, as most of the world’s trade is done through the South China Sea. This highhandedness on the part of China is intolerable for America. To counter the rising power of China, the Americans desperately need an Asian ally on whom they can depend. In this context, India fits into their scheme of things.
3. China is desperately looking for an opportunity to annex Taiwan, as it considers Taiwan its territory. Taiwan had become independent of China in 1949. Chinese fighter aircraft often violate Taiwan’s airspace to threaten it. On the other hand, the United States is determined to defend its integrity and sovereignty at any cost. In the given situation, Indian assistance and cooperation are of the utmost importance to the Americans.
4. The China-India border rivalry is well known around the world. China has repeatedly intruded into Indian territory and made false claims about it. Recently, in June 2020, it made aggressive inroads in eastern Ladakh. It has laid claim to Arunachal Pradesh and is establishing concrete villages around its periphery. It is, therefore, natural that India also seeks American support, and the latter is leaving no stone unturned to provide it to win India’s favours. 
5. Indian support for the United States in the Indo-Pacific region is of utmost importance. That is the reason why it overlooks Indian transactions with Russia, which is its archrival. When India purchases Russian defence weaponry, America keeps mum. When India buys Russian crude oil, America does not raise a finger. When India abstains from voting against Russia on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war in the United Nations assembly, even then Joe Biden is silent.

6. Last but not least, the United States is well aware of the emerging Indian market for global trade. It is, therefore, interested in investing heavily in the Indian market. Moreover, with strained relations with China, American companies are pulling out of China, and in the given situation, the Indian market is the best place to invest. When, in June 2023, the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi visited America, its president Joe Biden laid the red carpet for his welcome. Then both countries signed several trade agreements to boost trade between them.

Why France embraces India?

Whereas the United States of America has quite a good reason – political, strategic and economic – to woo India. On the other hand, France’s main objective is to gain maximum profit by investing in the Indian market.

Like the United States and other powerful countries desirous of investing in the Indian market France is intent to win this race. France is one of the key partners in the development of its defence, industrial and technological base. Both have important bilateral investments and trade and commercial cooperation. On July 4, 2023, when France celebrated the Fall of Bastille, the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi was the Guest of Honor and was bestowed the highest French title of Legion of Honor by French President Macron Emmanuel. On that occasion, both countries agreed to the joint development of jet and helicopter engines and the construction of three Scorpène-class submarines for the Indian navy. Both countries have strategic partnerships as well.

It can, therefore, be concluded that American interests are more at stake in the Indo-Pacific region than France’s. This is the reason Indian favour and cooperation is of utmost importance to the United States. That is why it overlooks the Indian overtures/negotiations with Russia; whether it pertains to defence deals or import of crude oil. 

However, the moot question is if the hostilities between the United States and China become imminent, whether the former can depend on India. Because China would never tolerate India siding with America. That would further aggravate the ongoing rivalry between China and India. In that case, India would face a grave situation. And, on the other side, if the Sino-Indian war begins, will the United States be able to help India? It may be borne in my mind Americans keep their interests first as former president Donald Trump used to say.

Picture design by Anumita Roy